LONG RUNNER GROSSES ANALYSIS- 2024 Year in Review
Source- https://www.broadwayworld.com/grossesbyyear.cfm?year=2024
Happy Friday! I am often asked about how well the longer running Broadway shows are doing, and my typical response is to say that I don't cover their grosses week to week (outside of general industry news). However, I do think it makes sense to look at their bigger picture on an annualized basis, so here we are! For these purposes a long runner is defined as a show that is still running that opened in the 2022-2023 season or earlier. All of these shows have recouped their initial investments, and I will not be attempting to do profit estimations (as I do with my weekly grosses analysis), but I will still do some analysis, as well as say whether or not I think a show is financially still "doing well". The metric for whether a show is "doing well" is where are they grossing relative to the house average. Average weekly attendance across all Broadway shows last year was ~90%, and the average ticket price was ~$125. Multiply those against the weekly capacity, and that is a theoretical average week of grosses for that house. Hope you enjoy!
Grosses (chronological order from opening)-
Chicago - $40 million gross, 81% capacity, $109 atp (Up $2,288,188 (6.49%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $769k; Lowest Week: $492k- Week Ending November 24); Doing Well Line: $925,000
Chicago is a special case compared to a lot of these other shows, in that they don't have a stop clause. Typically Broadway theater contracts are devised in such a way that allow the theater owner to evict a show should grosses be below a certain point. Chicago doesn't have one for a few reasons, mostly the Ambassador Theatre is a difficult space to be in, there is very little space in the wings and backstage due to the layout of the theatre in the building itself. The lack of stop clause is also a product of some of the industry-wide struggles post 9/11, which among other things led to the closure of the original production of Les Miserables. So unlike shows that can be pretty easily evicted, Chicago is just reliant on its producers having the cash on hand to keep the show running, and their producers are probably angling to take the record for longest running Broadway show in history. It probably makes a small amount of money or at least doesn't lose very much anyways, but I would say if they are on average above $700k they're probably fine. They were also one of only three long running shows to increase their total gross year on year.
The Lion King- $112 million gross, 96% capacity, $163 atp (Down $3,860,335 (2.80%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $2.1 million; Lowest Week: $1,504,346 (Week ending February 9); Doing Well Line: $1,526,400
Lion King is doing just fine, even though they were slightly down compared to last year. They likely have one of the highest operating costs on Broadway due to the massive size of the cast and orchestra, but they were the highest grossing show last year. As long as on average they're above $1.5 million they should be fine, and as long as they're above $1 million in any given week they'll be just fine. Lion King isn't going anywhere anytime soon, though I'll be curious to see if the new Mufasa movie increases grosses for them even though it's only tangentially related.
Wicked- $112 million gross, 98% capacity, $144 atp (Up $14,278,061 (14.71%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $2.1 million; Lowest Week: $1,303,288 (Week Ending February 9); Doing Well Line: $1,733,400
Wicked is coming hot off the heels of the massive success of their movie adaptation, and 2025 is clearly going to be a bumper year for them, where they will likely be the highest grossing show of the year (they lost out to Lion King this year by $2500). They were uber consistent in their increases too, only decreasing compared to the equivalent 2023 week four times. They're not in any danger anytime soon, though I have heard they are not done setting gross records (in 8 performance weeks).
The Book of Mormon- $49 million gross, 96% capacity; $116 atp (Down $2,444,805 (5.02%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $955k; Lowest Week: $756,168 (Week Ending September 22); Doing Well Line: $959,400
The Book of Mormon had a pretty decent year, down slightly from last year and the year before but still doing relatively well. They are benefiting from being one of the only musical comedies on Broadway (others have come and gone but until Death Becomes Her opened earlier this year they had basically no competition since Spamalot closed). Far as I can tell they're planning to run at least through their 15 year anniversary in 2026, and it remains to be seen from there.
Aladdin- $70 million gross, 94% capacity; $103 atp (Down $4,678,000 (5.95%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $1.4 million; Lowest Week: $923,150 (Week Ending February 9); Doing Well Line: $1,544,300
Aladdin in it's 10th anniversary season returned to the grosses it held at before the pandemic, after a very strong 2023. They are still making money as far as I can tell, and should they continue to be profitable they may to a Nederlander house in the longer run, which would allow Disney to put Hercules into the New Amsterdam (pending its success on the West End).
Hamilton- $98 million gross, 98% capacity; $182 atp (Down $968,700 (1.12%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $1.9 million; Lowest Week: $1,525,816 (Week Ending February 9); Doing Well Line: $1,191,600
Hamilton as the most recent "zeitgeist" show continues to excel, having the highest average ticket price of any of the long running shows. Hamilton also had the highest lowest grossing week of any of the long running shows at over $1.5 million. They have held pretty much steady year to year, they relaunched their second tour, and they continue to play to sold out houses in NYC and across the country and globe- which mostly makes me happy for the Public Theater who gets roundabout 1.5% of Hamilton's grosses and 5% of their profits.
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child- $63 million gross, 88% capacity; $107 atp (Down $7,690,376 (10%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $1.2 million; Lowest Week: $900,528 (Week Ending February 9); Doing Well Line: $1,459,800
Cursed Child has continued their steady downward trend over the last couple of years, though they are beginning to do sit down engagements with their tour, and they recently introduced another pared down version of the script to coincide with that. As long as they are above $800k in any given week they should be fine, but their best days are likely behind them.
Hadestown- $44 million gross, 98% capacity; $118 atp (Up $5,798,821 (15.42%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $855k; Lowest Week: $613,521 (Week Ending September 22); Doing Well Line: $826,200
Hadestown had a much better year than last year, a lot of which was down to the casting of Jordan Fisher as Orpheus, as well as their carousel of of stunt casts. With the licensing rights beginning to appear, hopefully that can serve to further boost the brand of Hadestown and serve the show in New York, as well as the nothing at all happening in the West End production next month...
Moulin Rouge!- $63 million gross, 97% capacity; $121 atp (Down $4,958,053 (6.91%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $1.2 million; Lowest Week: $932,546 (Week Ending November 24); Doing Well Line: $1,170,000
Moulin Rouge has had a tumultuous year months, dipping back into the Aaron Tveit well to shore up the grosses. But in other weeks they've struggled, needing around $1 million per week to cover their expenses (and this year was the first time they had any weeks below that). They made the decision to downsize the tour as well at the beginning of the year, and are the only long running show to have their lowest grosses occur not during or immediately around Broadway week. This is the long running show most likely to close next as things currently stand, but they have at least one stunt cast lined up with Boy George, who did sell tickets last year if nothing else.
Six- $45 million gross, 92% capacity; $115 atp (Down $6,706,530 (11.43%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $879k; Lowest Week: $618,871 (Week Ending September 30); Doing Well Line: $927,900
Luckily for Six they cost just about nothing to run. But at some point the Nederlanders might decide to kick them out, and my guess is they don't have too many years left. They are below my somewhat arbitrary "Doing Well Line", and they have gone so far as to reinstate a rush policy (even if only a student rush), which is not typically a good sign for a show. Their Toronto sit down production also closed recently after a successful run. I have little doubt that Six will run for about a million years off-Broadway, but I suspect their Broadway days are numbered.
MJ: The Musical- $75 million gross, 91% capacity; $142 atp (Down $10,155,765 (14.70%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $1.4 million; Lowest Week: $1,150,892 (Week Ending September 22); Doing Well Line: $1,248,300
MJ had the sharpest decrease year on year of any of the long runners, but they remain in a healthy place. They just had their tour go out, and it remains to be seen if that will help or hurt the Broadway show. By and large touring companies have hurt the Broadway show more than they have helped, but it remains to be seen how MJ will do. Beyond that they continue to do well (even if they aren't returning much money to their original investors).
&Juliet- $51 million gross, 98% capacity; $144 atp (Down $8,457,131 (14.13%) from last year)
Average Weekly Gross: $987k; Lowest Week: $644,758 (Week Ending September 22); Doing Well Line: $923,400
&Juliet is the most recent addition to the "long runners" and they are beginning the process of Stunt Casting, and they have some pretty great ones lined up. I suspect these stunt casts will do well, and their replacement cast has been receiving good word of mouth (and Charli D'Amelio doesn't hurt either). Long term they probably need to avoid too many weeks like the ones they had this fall, but they have been doing much better recently during the holidays as expected. They also just had their tour begin performances recently, which may further affect their grosses on Broadway.
Long Runners Ranked by Difference to "Doing Well Line"
Hamilton (+$698,535)
Lion King (+$629,995)
Wicked (+$422,948)
MJ: The Musical (+195,161)
&Juliet (+$64,077)
Moulin Rouge! (+$56,271)
Hadestown (+$28,684)
The Book of Mormon (-$4,735)
Six (-$48,929)
Chicago (-$-155,044)
Aladdin (-$190,928)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (-$234,985)
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