Spring Major 2022 Fantasy Guide: 20 May

TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you guys evaluate your results.
The averages across each player's 25 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727's guides.

Favour players from teams that will play more series. Although only the highest-scoring series is counted, players playing more series are more likely to have a better score.
Favour players from teams that are expected to win their matches. Core and Mid players score 30–50% more in winning games, and Support players score 10–20% more in winning games.
Favour players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
Favour carry players for the Core slots. This should be the case 99% of the time. Carry players score just as much in losses, as offlane players score in wins.
Favour hard support players for the Support slots. This primarily hinges on which support places the most observer wards for the team, which may not always be the hard support.

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

Indicator	Core	Mid	Support
Camps Stacked	7.23	5.61	10.98
Creep Score	7.40	6.29	1.57
Deaths	13.03	11.88	7.31
First Blood	3.33	2.15	3.50
GPM	8.35	7.36	4.48
Kills	13.26	15.68	5.26
Obs Wards	1.08	4.05	30.38
Roshan Kills	2.85	2.27	0.46
Runes Grabbed	5.48	16.17	7.41
Stuns	10.34	8.51	11.87
Teamfight	14.25	14.14	14.51
Tower Kills	13.41	5.88	2.26

Avg.: Average.
Std.: Standard deviation.
Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
(BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

Team 1	Team 2	Series Type	Scheduled Time
beastcoast	BetBoom Team	Bo3	2022-05-20 10:00 UTC
OG	Fnatic	Bo3	2022-05-20 13:40 UTC
Gaimin Gladiators	beastcoast / BetBoom Team	Bo3	2022-05-20 17:00 UTC

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Bas. Exp.	Pot. Exp.
Daxak	BetBoom Team	Bo3 + (Bo3)	16.57	5.31	35.71	39.60
dyrachyo	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	15.93	5.63	35.06	35.06
K1	beastcoast	Bo3 + (Bo3)	13.40	5.12	28.97	33.13
Yuragi	OG	Bo3	14.89	4.65	32.11	32.11
Wisper	beastcoast	Bo3 + (Bo3)	13.02	4.62	28.01	31.72
Raven	Fnatic	Bo3	13.91	4.95	30.22	30.22
Noticed	BetBoom Team	Bo3 + (Bo3)	12.56	3.69	26.88	29.68
AMMAR_THE_F	OG	Bo3	12.15	4.34	26.38	26.38
J	Fnatic	Bo3	11.75	4.03	25.43	25.43
Ace	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	11.23	2.30	23.62	23.62

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Bas. Exp.	Pot. Exp.
bzm	OG	Bo3	17.81	4.07	37.59	37.59
Larl	BetBoom Team	Bo3 + (Bo3)	15.60	4.34	33.50	36.91
C. smile <	beastcoast	Bo3 + (Bo3)	13.44	4.69	28.88	32.72
BOOM	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	15.24	4.04	32.59	32.59
Armel	Fnatic	Bo3	14.73	4.09	31.43	31.43

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Bas. Exp.	Pot. Exp.
XstiNgerX	beastcoast	Bo3 + (Bo3)	13.67	4.04	29.03	32.15
Gojira	beastcoast	Bo3 + (Bo3)	14.07	2.75	29.31	31.46
SoNNeikO	BetBoom Team	Bo3 + (Bo3)	13.00	3.65	27.58	30.39
DJ	Fnatic	Bo3	14.39	3.39	30.36	30.36
tOfu	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	14.16	3.11	29.96	29.96
Forcemajor	BetBoom Team	Bo3 + (Bo3)	11.80	4.94	25.47	29.38
Seleri	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	12.88	3.29	27.25	27.25
Taiga	OG	Bo3	12.70	3.92	27.13	27.13
Jaunuel	Fnatic	Bo3	12.63	3.51	26.80	26.80