Spring Major 2022 Fantasy Guide: 20 May
TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.
Resources
- I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you guys evaluate your results.
- The averages across each player's 25 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
- This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727's guides.
Data Sources
- The numbers in this post are based only on matches played during this Major.
- The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
General Strategy
- Favour players from teams that will play more series. Although only the highest-scoring series is counted, players playing more series are more likely to have a better score.
- Favour players from teams that are expected to win their matches. Core and Mid players score 30–50% more in winning games, and Support players score 10–20% more in winning games.
- Favour players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
- Favour carry players for the Core slots. This should be the case 99% of the time. Carry players score just as much in losses, as offlane players score in wins.
- Favour hard support players for the Support slots. This primarily hinges on which support places the most observer wards for the team, which may not always be the hard support.
Gold/Silver Card Bonuses
Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.
**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*
Indicator | Core | Mid | Support |
---|---|---|---|
Camps Stacked | 7.23 | 5.61 | 10.98 |
Creep Score | 7.40 | 6.29 | 1.57 |
Deaths | 13.03 | 11.88 | 7.31 |
First Blood | 3.33 | 2.15 | 3.50 |
GPM | 8.35 | 7.36 | 4.48 |
Kills | 13.26 | 15.68 | 5.26 |
Obs Wards | 1.08 | 4.05 | 30.38 |
Roshan Kills | 2.85 | 2.27 | 0.46 |
Runes Grabbed | 5.48 | 16.17 | 7.41 |
Stuns | 10.34 | 8.51 | 11.87 |
Teamfight | 14.25 | 14.14 | 14.51 |
Tower Kills | 13.41 | 5.88 | 2.26 |
Notes
- Avg.: Average.
- Std.: Standard deviation.
- Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
- Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
- Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
- (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.
Spring Major 2022
**Table 2:* The schedule.*
Team 1 | Team 2 | Series Type | Scheduled Time |
---|---|---|---|
beastcoast | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 2022-05-20 10:00 UTC |
OG | Fnatic | Bo3 | 2022-05-20 13:40 UTC |
Gaimin Gladiators | beastcoast / BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 2022-05-20 17:00 UTC |
**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*
Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Bas. Exp. | Pot. Exp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daxak | BetBoom Team | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 16.57 | 5.31 | 35.71 | 39.60 |
dyrachyo | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 15.93 | 5.63 | 35.06 | 35.06 |
K1 | beastcoast | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 13.40 | 5.12 | 28.97 | 33.13 |
Yuragi | OG | Bo3 | 14.89 | 4.65 | 32.11 | 32.11 |
Wisper | beastcoast | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 13.02 | 4.62 | 28.01 | 31.72 |
Raven | Fnatic | Bo3 | 13.91 | 4.95 | 30.22 | 30.22 |
Noticed | BetBoom Team | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 12.56 | 3.69 | 26.88 | 29.68 |
AMMAR_THE_F | OG | Bo3 | 12.15 | 4.34 | 26.38 | 26.38 |
J | Fnatic | Bo3 | 11.75 | 4.03 | 25.43 | 25.43 |
Ace | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 11.23 | 2.30 | 23.62 | 23.62 |
**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*
Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Bas. Exp. | Pot. Exp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bzm | OG | Bo3 | 17.81 | 4.07 | 37.59 | 37.59 |
Larl | BetBoom Team | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 15.60 | 4.34 | 33.50 | 36.91 |
C. smile < | beastcoast | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 13.44 | 4.69 | 28.88 | 32.72 |
BOOM | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 15.24 | 4.04 | 32.59 | 32.59 |
Armel | Fnatic | Bo3 | 14.73 | 4.09 | 31.43 | 31.43 |
**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*
Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Bas. Exp. | Pot. Exp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XstiNgerX | beastcoast | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 13.67 | 4.04 | 29.03 | 32.15 |
Gojira | beastcoast | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 14.07 | 2.75 | 29.31 | 31.46 |
SoNNeikO | BetBoom Team | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 13.00 | 3.65 | 27.58 | 30.39 |
DJ | Fnatic | Bo3 | 14.39 | 3.39 | 30.36 | 30.36 |
tOfu | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 14.16 | 3.11 | 29.96 | 29.96 |
Forcemajor | BetBoom Team | Bo3 + (Bo3) | 11.80 | 4.94 | 25.47 | 29.38 |
Seleri | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 12.88 | 3.29 | 27.25 | 27.25 |
Taiga | OG | Bo3 | 12.70 | 3.92 | 27.13 | 27.13 |
Jaunuel | Fnatic | Bo3 | 12.63 | 3.51 | 26.80 | 26.80 |