Spring Major 2022 Fantasy Guide: 20 May

TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

  • I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you guys evaluate your results.
  • The averages across each player's 25 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
  • This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727's guides.

Data Sources

  • The numbers in this post are based only on matches played during this Major.
  • The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.

General Strategy

  • Favour players from teams that will play more series. Although only the highest-scoring series is counted, players playing more series are more likely to have a better score.
  • Favour players from teams that are expected to win their matches. Core and Mid players score 30–50% more in winning games, and Support players score 10–20% more in winning games.
  • Favour players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Favour carry players for the Core slots. This should be the case 99% of the time. Carry players score just as much in losses, as offlane players score in wins.
  • Favour hard support players for the Support slots. This primarily hinges on which support places the most observer wards for the team, which may not always be the hard support.

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

Indicator Core Mid Support
Camps Stacked 7.23 5.61 10.98
Creep Score 7.40 6.29 1.57
Deaths 13.03 11.88 7.31
First Blood 3.33 2.15 3.50
GPM 8.35 7.36 4.48
Kills 13.26 15.68 5.26
Obs Wards 1.08 4.05 30.38
Roshan Kills 2.85 2.27 0.46
Runes Grabbed 5.48 16.17 7.41
Stuns 10.34 8.51 11.87
Teamfight 14.25 14.14 14.51
Tower Kills 13.41 5.88 2.26

Notes

  • Avg.: Average.
  • Std.: Standard deviation.
  • Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
  • Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
  • Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
  • (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.

Spring Major 2022

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

Team 1 Team 2 Series Type Scheduled Time
beastcoast BetBoom Team Bo3 2022-05-20 10:00 UTC
OG Fnatic Bo3 2022-05-20 13:40 UTC
Gaimin Gladiators beastcoast / BetBoom Team Bo3 2022-05-20 17:00 UTC

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Bas. Exp. Pot. Exp.
Daxak BetBoom Team Bo3 + (Bo3) 16.57 5.31 35.71 39.60
dyrachyo Gaimin Gladiators Bo3 15.93 5.63 35.06 35.06
K1 beastcoast Bo3 + (Bo3) 13.40 5.12 28.97 33.13
Yuragi OG Bo3 14.89 4.65 32.11 32.11
Wisper beastcoast Bo3 + (Bo3) 13.02 4.62 28.01 31.72
Raven Fnatic Bo3 13.91 4.95 30.22 30.22
Noticed BetBoom Team Bo3 + (Bo3) 12.56 3.69 26.88 29.68
AMMAR_THE_F OG Bo3 12.15 4.34 26.38 26.38
J Fnatic Bo3 11.75 4.03 25.43 25.43
Ace Gaimin Gladiators Bo3 11.23 2.30 23.62 23.62

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Bas. Exp. Pot. Exp.
bzm OG Bo3 17.81 4.07 37.59 37.59
Larl BetBoom Team Bo3 + (Bo3) 15.60 4.34 33.50 36.91
C. smile < beastcoast Bo3 + (Bo3) 13.44 4.69 28.88 32.72
BOOM Gaimin Gladiators Bo3 15.24 4.04 32.59 32.59
Armel Fnatic Bo3 14.73 4.09 31.43 31.43

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Bas. Exp. Pot. Exp.
XstiNgerX beastcoast Bo3 + (Bo3) 13.67 4.04 29.03 32.15
Gojira beastcoast Bo3 + (Bo3) 14.07 2.75 29.31 31.46
SoNNeikO BetBoom Team Bo3 + (Bo3) 13.00 3.65 27.58 30.39
DJ Fnatic Bo3 14.39 3.39 30.36 30.36
tOfu Gaimin Gladiators Bo3 14.16 3.11 29.96 29.96
Forcemajor BetBoom Team Bo3 + (Bo3) 11.80 4.94 25.47 29.38
Seleri Gaimin Gladiators Bo3 12.88 3.29 27.25 27.25
Taiga OG Bo3 12.70 3.92 27.13 27.13
Jaunuel Fnatic Bo3 12.63 3.51 26.80 26.80