Still-Too-Early 2025 Rankings Part 2 -- RBs

There is a slightly longer intro on yesterday’s QB/TE Rankings. 2025 WR Rankings will be due out tomorrow. 

The write-ups would be too long for a post. I edit them down based largely on the information I believe I will be asked the most (Jeanty, Singleton, Gordon, etc.). However, there is a FULL Version including audio from Fantasy for Real:

https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/51-very-big-ranking-and-review-show

For anyone who follows the Substack, Trevor Etienne and Desmond Reid will be two omissions from the original piece that will be mentioned on the Thursday write-up, as well as Le’Veon Moss. 

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PART TWO – RBs

While the lack of high-end QBs may weigh-down the draft pick values in Superflex formats, all signs point to this being an excellent class in 1QB leagues, and this RB class is a massive reason why. Not only does it have potential in the top-end, but there is great potential in the depth of this RB class.

On my board, the clearest gap in this class is between the top 4 RBs and everyone else. I know Jeanty in particular is considered by the majority to be in a tier of his own, but the bigger fall-off currently on my board is after RB4. I do like a good number of the RBs in 2 and 3a, but ultimately I have a hard time distinguishing anyone who truly deserves at this point to be the RB5, so Tier 2 are my top candidates. 

Draft Capital Guide*: Tier 1a = Fringe Day 1 ; Tier 2 = Day 2 ; Tier 3a = Day 3 – High Upside / Possible Day 2 ; Tier 3b = Likely Day 3

*: Not representative of past classes or other positions. 

Tier 1a

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State ; Nicholas Singleton, Penn State

Tier 1b

TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State ; Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State via Ole Miss

Tier 2

Jordan James, Oregon ; Kaleb Johnson, Iowa ; Trevor Etienne, Florida via Georgia ; Dylan Sampson, Tennessee ; Devin Neal, Kansas ; Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

Tier 3a

Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma St. ; Damien Martinez, Miami (FL) via Oregon State ; Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, South Carolina via Arkansas ; Jonah Coleman, Washington via Arizona ; Phil Mafah, Clemson ; D.J. Giddens, Kansas St. ; Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh via Western Carolina

Tier 3b

Kaytron Allen, Penn State ; Kalel Mullings, RB, Michigan ; R.J. Harvey, UCF ; Kyle Monangai, Rutgers ; Ja’Quinden Jackson, Arkansas via Utah ; Lev’eon Moss, Texas A&M

Honorable Mentions: Donovan Edwards, Michigan ; Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech

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One of the most versatile players in this class, Ashton Jeanty possesses a unique blend of compact power and pass-catching traits that have the potential to translate into long term, high-upside fantasy scoring. [...] While I do not have many questions about Jeanty’s translation to the NFL level, Jeanty’s size is probably more of a question than most people have given it credit for. Listed at 5’ 9”, I would estimate Jeanty to be around 5’ 8 ¼” based simply on some recent listed size difference. Jeanty has a compact build, but he is not necessarily the kind of stout you find in a player like Maurice Jones-Drew. As of now, the push from the market has me moving Jeanty up closer to RB1a than before where he was closer to my 1b, and particularly with Draft Capital being equal, Jeanty’s versatility would likely showcase him as having the most upside. While this remains controversial, and I don’t necessarily anticipate this holds Jeanty back, I’m not completely convinced that size-related traits are a non-factor for Ashton Jeanty’s draft capital and NFL Grades.

Depending on how you define it, Nicholas Singleton is the highest upside RB in this class; his capacity seems greater than any other RB. Given Jeanty’s superior pass-catching profile, maybe that’s not true for our game, but it is certainly true at the NFL level. Singleton has the kind of explosive ability that should not exist in a RB his size (listed 6’, 226 lbs). From the start of his collegiate career, Singleton was one of the most explosive players in College Football. However, he struggled significantly in 2023 to produce the same explosive plays he had as a freshman. So far this year, Singleton is back to his 2022 form, and he’s getting slowly and subtly worked into the passing game more and more as well. There are areas of nuance and feel that Singleton needs to improve upon, but I believe a team will draft him that highly and give him that chance to be an explosive NFL Playmaker at RB. 

For most of the season so far, there has been little to say about TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins due to their schedule. [...] These are two of the best RBs in College Football, but right now we’re still mostly in standby mode when it comes to having anything new to discuss. 

While Tier 1 has substantial upside and depth on its own, the real upside in the class may be found in the depth at RB shown in Tier 2/3a. [...]

Kaleb Johnson is a player who followed up a promising freshman season with a disappointing sophomore campaign. Through four games this year, Kaleb Johnson has already surpassed his 2023 Rushing Yards total, and that is because he has at least 173 Rushing Yards in each of his last three games, and these include games against state rival Iowa State and a road game against Minnesota. This will be a harder class to rise up than last year, but Johnson will continue to rise as he continues to showcase these dominant performances. At this point, I’m not sure Johnson has the capability to jump into the Tier 1 grade, but perhaps I’m underselling him. More feasibly, Johnson is setting himself up as a potential lead candidate among the next tier of RBs. Hopefully, Johnson will continue to punish opposing defenses as he gets further into Big Ten play. While some will criticize Singleton for something similar, Omarion Hampton is the RB that is knocked on my list the most for his general feel for the game. It is hard to explain the gap between Singleton and Hampton in writing, but essentially outside of the differences in the extent of their size-speed explosiveness, while I do have questions about Singleton in certain specific areas of vision, nuance, and feel, Omarion Hampton seems to run with as little pace, patience, planning, or manipulation of angle as anyone in this class. [...]

Jonah Coleman is another player on the rankings today who would be a strong candidate to appear in a Week 5 Risers post. [...] For Phil Mafah, there were times late last year where despite the hype surrounding Will Shipley, it seemed like Mafah was the better, more explosive player. [...] …in the 10 games since and including when Mafah took over for an injured Shipley against N.C. State, Mafah has 165 Carries, 952 Yards (5.8 YPC), and 11 TDs. Mafah possesses fantastic size (listed 6’ 1”, 230 lbs) and good explosive ability, and is still a true senior (4th year) even if he is not an early declare. Certain players in every cycle become “box checkers” over time, and Mafah seems to qualify for a player who might check quite a few boxes, and continue to check boxes throughout the 2024 season. 

With Tier 2 in the books, it’s time to have the Ollie Gordon II conversation. At this point, it is fair to question if Gordon could become this year’s Rocket Sanders, as if Gordon’s season doesn’t turn around quickly, he may be returning to CFB next year like Sanders did after his disappointing 2023. Gordon is not a player I was particularly fond of in the off-season, but I would have never anticipated it to be this bad. That said, Gordon does struggle out of the gate, and this is a poor skill to have in most modern offenses. Even this past weekend where he had more efficiency against Kansas State, his success rate was poor overall. The proportion of Gordon’s carries that went for -3, 0, or 2 yards was very, very high. This has essentially been my problem with Gordon going back to last year: despite his size and how you would expect him to be successful, Gordon succeeds almost exclusively on the back of explosive plays, and is a RB who is often lacking in success rate. [...]

In 2023, Ollie Gordon had 553 Rushing Yards in 2 Games against West Virginia and Cincinnati. This is when his stock exploded to national attention. In the 10 Games since against the FBS – not just this season but covering roughly half of last season as well – Ollie Gordon has 204 Carries, 853 Yards, and 12 TDs. The TDs are nice, but 853 Yards on 204 Carries (4.2 YPC) over 10 Games is not NFL-caliber production. 

[...]

Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, Damien Martinez, and DJ Giddens are three more RBs with excellent size and size adjusted explosiveness. [...]

Overall, I’m not quite sure yet if we have a 1st Round RB or not necessarily, but I do think we have a good chance at it, and more importantly I think we have a chance at a few in the top 50. While obviously going at the very top of the draft is better, even the top 50 picks have fairly reliable consistency at RB. This doesn’t mean they always hit as they clearly don’t, but particularly top 50 picks in good situations seem like very safe investments. On top of that, if I had to guess, we’re going to get a strong number of RBs again in that 70-85 pick range this year like we did in 2023 (Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, De’Von Achane, & Tank Bigsby). 

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One final PS, I concluded the Audio Version with a second discussion on Ashton Jeanty and Nicholas Singleton. Ultimately, the practical difference between who is 1A and who is 1B at this point is negligible. I’m off-market simply on the belief that the top-4 RBs are close. If I were in a Devy league, I would consider “tiering down” from Ashton Jeanty if anyone was willing to give me what seems to be his current value at least to some. At the same time, I believe you always want to manage the way you defy the market, so to speak. With such a strong developing market consensus, it makes sense to lean towards Jeanty if all things are equal and without significant enough context. This is also because of what it means for my perception of Draft Capital. Jeanty’s concerns on my board are things that will be washed away at the Draft, so ultimately if I am becoming increasingly confident he may get that Draft Capital, those concerns get washed away. Players like Singleton still physically project for a floor that I typically value more when it comes to forecasting from a long way out. 

That said, I am going back and forth quite often. These are clearly the top two RBs for me, and I truly believe Singleton is becoming shockingly unheralded for his level of talent and upside.

That’s all for today. Will be off & on to answer questions as usual. 

Thanks, 

C.J.