2024 Rookie Receiver Yardage Thresholds: Midseason Edition

It’s well known that rookie wide receivers improve as the season progresses, but how well should they produce by midseason? Let me break it down for you.

 

At the end of the 2023 season, I posted about a refinement to the 525 Rule which can be found here. In summary, a combination of Draft Capital and Scrimmage Yd/G is a better indicator of production in future years than a one-size-fits-all approach of total receiving yards. I only looked at rookie receivers since 2012 who played in at least 10 games and had at least 150 total scrimmage yards. This refinement accounts for three things:

  • Receivers with better draft capital should produce sooner.
  • Receivers should be recognized for their impact on the running game.
  • Receivers shouldn’t be penalized for missing games during the season.

 

Below are the yearend thresholds by draft capital that rookie receivers need to meet in order to produce in years 2-3:

  • Round 1: 50 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 2: 40 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 3: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: 37.5 Scrimmage Yd/G

 

There are also two general yearend thresholds for all receivers:

  • 76% of all receivers to average at least 50 Scrimmage Yd/G had at least one Top 20 finish or better in years 2-3.
  • 83% of all receivers to average less than 30 Scrimmage Yd/G did not have a Top 40 finish or better in years 2-3.

 

Midseason Thresholds

With that refresher out of the way, let's move on to the midseason thresholds. The same set of receivers used to establish the yearend thresholds was also used to determine the midseason thresholds. This group of receivers was further filtered to only include those to play in at least 5 games and have at least 75 total scrimmage yards through Week 8 of the regular season.

 

Below are the midseason thresholds. For example, a Round 1 receiver needs to average at least 40 Scrimmage Yd/G by Week 8 of the regular season in order to average at least 50 Scrimmage Yd/G by yearend.

  • Round 1: 40 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 2: 35 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 3: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: 35 Scrimmage Yd/G

 

Overall, 89% of receivers that met their midseason threshold also met their yearend threshold. Vice versa, 88% of receivers that don't meet their midseason threshold also don't meet their yearend threshold. Below you can find the breakdown by draft capital.

 

Round 1 Receivers

Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
>= 40 >= 50 20 87%
>= 40 < 50 3 13%
Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
< 40 >= 50 1 14%
< 40 < 50 6 86%

 

Round 2 Receivers

Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
>= 35 >= 40 20 83%
>= 35 < 40 4 17%
Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
< 35 >= 40 2 10%
< 35 < 40 17 90%

 

Round 3 Receivers

Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
>= 30 >= 30 12 100%
>= 30 < 30 0 0%
Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
< 30 >= 30 1 8%
< 30 < 30 12 92%

 

Round 4+ or UDFA Receivers

Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
>= 35 >= 37.5 14 93%
>= 35 < 37.5 1 7%
Midseason Average Year End Average Receiver Count Percent
< 35 >= 37.5 4 14%
< 35 < 37.5 25 86%

 

Outliers

Below are the receivers to meet their midseason threshold and then not meet their yearend threshold:

  • Round 1: Kadarius Toney, Kendall Wright, Marquise Brown
  • Round 2: Alec Pierce, Alshon Jeffery, Mecole Hardman, Rondale Moore
  • Round 3: N/A
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: Romeo Doubs

 

Below are the receivers to not meet their midseason threshold and then met their yearend threshold:

  • Round 1: Justin Blackmon
  • Round 2: Christian Watson, Elijah Moore
  • Round 3: Michael Gallup
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: Dontayvion Wicks, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Cole, Robbie Chosen

 

The Late Season Breakout

If you have a receiver that didn’t meet their midseason threshold, consider holding until the offseason. These receivers see on average a 33% increase in Scrimmage Yd/G during the second half of the season, so a sell window may appear. On the flip side, receivers that met their midseason threshold see on average just a 5% increase in Scrimmage Yd/G. Given these receivers have already broken out, this isn't surprising.

 

2024 Rookie Receivers

Below are the 2024 receivers that met their midseason threshold:

  • Round 1: Brian Thomas Jr, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy
  • Round 2: Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey
  • Round 3: N/A
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: Jalen Coker

 

Below are the 2024 receivers that did not meet their midseason threshold:

  • Round 1: Xavier Legette
  • Round 2: Adonai Mitchell, Ja'Lynn Polk
  • Round 3: Jalen McMillan, Jermaine Burton, Luke McCaffrey
  • Round 4+ or UDFA: Bub Means, Jordan Whittington, Mason Tipton, Troy Franklin

 

Some additional notes:

  • Malik Nabers averaged more than 80 Scrimmage Yd/G. The only other receivers to average more than 80 Scrimmage Yd/G were Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Puka Nacua.
  • Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy averaged less than 45 Scrimmage Yd/G. The only other Round 1 receivers to meet their midseason threshold while averaging less than 45 Scrimmage Yd/G were Drake London and Kendall Wright. Depending on how things shake out at yearend, the Round 1 midseason threshold may change.
  • Ja’Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, and Luke McCaffrey averaged less than 15 Scrimmage Yd/G. The only other Round 2-3 receivers to average less than 15 Scrimmage Yd/G were Brian Quick, David Bell, Devin Funchess, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Skyy Moore.
  • Jordan Whittington was close to meeting his midseason threshold. Of all Round 4+ or UDFA receivers that didn’t meet their midseason threshold, Whittington was the closest to meeting it.
  • Jacob Cowing and Johnny Wilson played in at least 5 games but had less than 75 total scrimmage yards. Of the 19 receivers to play in at least 5 games with less than 75 total scrimmage yards, only 2 met their yearend threshold.
  • Devaughn Vele played in just 4 games but averaged over 40 Scrimmage Yd/G, putting him on track to meet his midseason threshold. The only other receivers on track to meet their midseason threshold while playing 3-4 games were Bryan Edwards, Kenny Golladay, Rashid Shaheed, and Stefon Diggs.

 

Prior Seasons

Below are the 2021-2023 receivers that met their midseason threshold:

  • 2023: Demario Douglas, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers
  • 2022: Alec Pierce, Chris Olave, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Romeo Doubs
  • 2021: Amon-Ra St Brown, DeVonta Smith, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Nico Collins, Rondale Moore

 

Below are the 2021-2023 receivers that did not meet their midseason threshold:

  • 2023: Dontayvion Wicks, Jake Bobo, Jalin Hyatt, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Quentin Johnston, Tre Tucker, Trey Palmer, Tyler Scott
  • 2022: Christian Watson, David Bell, Khalil Shakir, Skyy Moore
  • 2021: Dyami Brown, Elijah Moore, Joshua Palmer