Is Shedeur Sanders still in the QB1 Conversation? (Deeper Dives #13)

This post is from a previous episode of Fantasy for Real, but this is my first Deeper Dive from this new show.

This show also includes Deeper Dives that will be posted soon on Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Xavier Restrepo, and Jayden Higgins.

The podcast discussing Sanders/Ward can be found here:

https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/73-shedeur-sanders-cam-ward-and-travis

As always, remember that subscribing/following the podcast is a free & easy way to support the growth of the show!

//

DEEPER DIVE #13: 

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Age: 23.07

Height: 6’ 2”

Weight: 215 lbs

There are few players in any class as controversial as Shedeur Sanders. A former 3* recruit who was given far more credit after two years at Jackson State, the son of Deion Sanders may not be quite what you expect physically. While 6' 2", 215 lbs does not make Sanders a particularly small QB, he does not have the ideal build, and likewise is not graded by myself or the consensus as having a particularly strong arm (compared to a top-tier prospect) or high-tier mobility. Still, Sanders does possess perhaps the best potential starting QB profile in this class. Sanders is a tough QB with excellent ball placement and a developed sense of reading defenses, at least from what we can see so far through his Colorado tenure. Sanders' age is not really an issue in any way, but it is worth noting that he is closer to the standard for a 5th year senior than a 4th year senior, as Sanders was closer to 19.5 when he first started for Jackson State. On that note of playing for both Jackson State and Colorado, Shedeur Sanders is in the unique position of having been coached directly by his father for at least the last 8 years (4 Years in HS, 2 Years at Jackson State, 2 Years at Colorado). This is likely not a variable to make much of, but it is at the least another indicator of some uniqueness to the background and storylines surrounding Shedeur Sanders. When it comes to the direct comparison between Sanders and Ward, while Ward may be the more physically talented player, there is a reasonable assumption in my eyes that Sanders is more likely to be a long-term NFL QB.

Sanders ability as a pure passer can be displayed simply by the fact that through his Colorado career, Sanders possessed a Completion% of 71.8% with a 74% Completion% in his final year. While I may be the first to mention how Comp% can become an overrated statistic, hitting as high as 74% definitely can give some indication of a general knack for consistency and repeatability. Similarly, according to PFF, Sanders was 2nd in Adjusted Completion% and 3rd in Passing Grade, signaling more signs of potential consistency. Sanders YPA efficiency also increased from 7.5 to 8.7, and while his INTs increased from year 1 to year 2, Sanders' overall ability to limit disastrous decisions was solid throughout his career. The biggest concern with Sanders comes from his relaxed nature under pressure. Sanders is not completely without natural ability when it comes to evading the pass rush, but his decision to evade or maneuver away from the pass rush often comes far too late. He did improve his pressure-to-sack% from 2023 to 2024, but that number is still a potential red flag. Among the top 100 QBs in CFB, Shedeur Sanders was 71st in Pressure-to-Sack% and 86th in Time-To-Throw. This is the biggest concern with Sanders as it has potential to unravel the idea that Sanders is the higher floor QB between himself and Cam Ward. While I still believe this to be the case at this time, there are certainly identifiable pitfalls within Sanders' game that could lead to his ultimate demise.

For this Deeper Dive, we will be using this Every Throw & Run video against Baylor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7gUOOghQfE

While there is plenty of positive to be found in this video, if we start right off the top, we see Sanders taking consecutive sacks in the first two plays. Now the second sack will be called back on an offsides, but from a pure-reactions perspective, you would still like Sanders to be able to get rid of that ball and potentially take advantage of the penalty. What's perhaps most notable about this game is that against Baylor, Sanders had his best rushing performance of his CFB Career. This is not a particular strength of his game, but at 1:45, 2:20, 6:30, 11:20, and 18:10, we see what the mobility potential is with Shedeur Sanders. In particular, the play at 6:30 shows some of the toughness and ability to slip through at least some potential tacklers in the backfield. The more impressive feats from most of Sanders' tape though will be his passing plays. For example, at 3:10 Sanders ropes a deep throw down the left sideline with excellent placement to give his WR a legitimate fighting shot. And while Sanders' play at 6:30 ended in rushing yards, there are a few good examples on this tape where Sanders' ability to escape translates into potential downfield passing success. While the play at 3:40 is not a particularly large gain, it is an impressive throw and decision moving to his left. And at 8:00, Sanders escapes to make an excellent down field throw. Some traits are easy to see in singular plays, but throughout the video it is also easy to see the toughness consistently on display with Shedeur Sanders.

Ultimately, on the Athletic Football Show, they have liked to play a game before of "Star, Starter, Bust," which is essentially looking at prospects by those three outcomes. While we haven't dug into Cam Ward yet (up next), the biggest dynamic between these two may be how they rank differently in those categories. Cam Ward is clearly the player who I would grade more highly as a prospect in the "Star" category. He has more traits that align with past MVPs and superstars. However, despite having some issues with pressure and speeding up his timing, Sanders in my eyes is clearly the more likely player to avoid being a bust and have success as a long term starter. It is curious that since the Titans received the #1 Overall pick that Ward has been gaining steam as the 1.01. Perhaps there is something about the Titans owner that makes people think it will be Ward, but I wonder if it is just the case that Sanders is more difficult to take with the #1 Overall pick now that we're finally in the place where theory becomes reality. In a draft like 2024 where both QBs would be pushed down, maybe we see a greater chance of Sanders going over Ward. But in an arena where one has to be the #1 Overall pick, I can see the "Star" potential with Ward winning out for the Titans. QB grades can be a bit difficult to translate, but I would have Sanders closer to a top 10 to top 15 Overall Pick Grade compared to the top 3 grade of the top 3 prospects last year, though in this starved environment, that may be worth even the #1 Overall Pick.

//

Next Deeper Dive: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)

After That: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

//

Thanks, will be around off-and-on.

C.J.