Website: https://orbanalytics.substack.com/ 

What we do:

Hello everyone, my name is Andres, and I am the Creative Director and Co-Founder of Orb Analytics Limited. Orb is a data analytics and information company specializing in distributing gambling picks through Python-powered predictive models. We host our content on Substack.com and cover professional sports including the NBA, PGA, ATP, and NFL.

Why it's hard/hasn't been done yet:

At Orb Analytics, our mission is to empower everyday gamblers by using data analytics to help them level the odds against Vegas and achieve profitability. We face a challenging landscape, competing in an industry dominated by flashy gimmicks and "get rich quick" personalities who capitalize on hype over substance. We are built on transparency that eliminates these unrealistic expectations and false promises. Our focus is on delivering meaningful insights and sustainable strategies. 

Achieving accurate, profitable predictions consistently in this industry is difficult, as evidenced by our track record: The Orb's 59% accuracy over a 155-pick sample is 2.25 standard deviations above a mean accuracy of 50%, with only a 1.22% probability of reaching such a result by chance alone. This places our performance in the top 1.22% compared to a baseline population that merely 'guesses' outcomes. Our intention is to highlight the complexities and false promises that are pervasive in this industry. For example:

Expected accuracy distribution (based on standard deviation):

• 68% of gamblers have an accuracy rate between 46% and 54%.
• 95% of gamblers achieve accuracy between 42% and 58%.
• 99.7% fall within the 38% to 62% accuracy range.

When you encounter someone claiming a 70%+ accuracy rate against the spread over a significant sample size, they are either an exceptionally rare outlier (approximately 1 in 3.5 million) or possibly being disingenuous. Accurate predictions beyond the 52.4% threshold should be celebrated, while extreme accuracy or inaccuracy demonstrates the inherent difficulty of consistently beating the spread.

Why it matters:

Sports gambling is rigged against the player. Roughly only 3% of sports bettors are profitable long-term against the sportsbook. But the industry is flooded with promises of profit and false hope. The fact that a spread pick is essentially a ‘coin flip’ odds, it is offered at -110 meaning that you as the player risk $10 to win $9.09 so the house has an inherent and often insurmountable edge over the long term. For example, if you were to go 2-1 against the spread on a given weekend betting $100 on each bet, you would be up $81.8, while a one-game change to a 1-2 performance would result in a $109.1 loss.

Transparency and data-driven approaches can transform how society perceives and engages with sports gambling. We believe this is crucial in reshaping the industry for the better, focusing on informed decision-making and realistic expectations. We have the same approach to our data-driven models as any stock/financial investor would have in evaluating companies on the stock market. We take on the responsibility of showing the dangers of gambling outside of your means. Currently, many rely on 'gut feelings,' hearsay, or inconsistent data sources that often fall short and leave players in big financial holes. 

Our Goals for the Future

1. Expand and grow our subscriber base and reach.
2. Expand our product of predictive model offerings to additional professional sports.
3. Establish a year-round company that creates a community of content that entertains and provides data-driven insights.

What We Are Seeking from You

1. Insights and strategies from successful entrepreneurs.
2. Guidance and advice from individuals who are at a similar stage in their entrepreneurial journey.
3. Constructive feedback from users and readers of our platform.
4. Innovative digital marketing tactics to grow our audience.
5. Strategies to convert free subscribers into paying subscribers.
6. Opportunities and strategies to sell advertisements on our platform.
7. Effective affiliate marketing partnerships.
8. Approaches to build a more engaged and thriving community. 

Website: https://orbanalytics.substack.com/