GOP will probably win 2028 if things go… Just okay

Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have argued recently that Democrats must shift toward populism to remain competitive, but such a strategy will only work if economic conditions are dire. On the other hand, the Obama-Clinton Democratic Party, characterized by centrist policies and establishment appeal, is no longer effective in today’s political landscape. Historically, elections show that if people are better off than they were four years ago, they tend to vote for the incumbent party. This is especially true if the candidate aligns closely with a popular administration, as J.D. Vance aligns himself with Trump, unlike Al Gore, who distanced himself from Bill Clinton.

The 2020 election illustrates this trend. Despite Trump’s administration being plagued by scandals and impeachment, he came extremely close to winning, with only 44,000 votes in key swing states deciding the outcome. It’s almost certain that Democrats would have lost if it hadn’t been for the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the pandemic, economic conditions had improved under Trump, and people felt better off than they had four years earlier. Similarly, Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 despite significant failures in his first term, like the rollout of healthcare and slow economic recovery, because voters felt much better off than they had during the financial crisis under George W. Bush.

In 2016, much of Hillary Clinton’s loss can be attributed to her campaign’s failure to address the Rust Belt effectively. By taking the region for granted and neglecting to campaign there, she alienated voters who were open to flipping Republican. If Clinton had focused on the Rust Belt, it’s plausible she could have won. Looking ahead, if Republicans don’t take future elections for granted and stay competitive, they are positioned to win in 2028, especially if Trump’s presidency performs decently, even if it’s plagued by scandals once again. As long as voters feel economically stable or improving, Democrats could find themselves at a significant disadvantage, potentially leaving them out of power for the next eight years.