NVDA in the next two years

Good morning. I have an opinion on the future. I usually don't. I like surprises. But these thoughts self-assembled this morning, inspired in no small part by discussions on this forum. How stable will these YieldMax funds be, long-term?

They won't. They weren't supposed to be. It's not in the design. They are here to monetize the upward movement of hot stocks. If the upward part or the hot part of the underlying stock fails, the fund will tank. When NVDA goes up or down $1, NVDY goes $3.

But I'm bullish on NVDY for the next two years. Here's why: I think the floor appeared under NVDA stock last Friday, a week ahead of the report. NVDA volatility was caused by things that happened, and it continued until sentiment put the floor under the price at about $122. It was inevitable that the price would start rising again, but it happened a week early.

It took basically two years for NVDA to get to $1,000. I think this time the ceiling is $800. The Law of Averages and the whole "Things Go Wrong" axiom mean that a new technology is going to appear that takes 20% of Nvidia's market share, and then another and another. I think Nvidia is being smart about investing in competitors. If I were Nvidia, I'd build a plant dedicated to unseating Nvidia before anyone else does.

So this is my prediction: In two years, NVDA stock will be around $800, but it will trend lower due to decreased growth and market share, unless they also dominate the next technology, which will get them broken up by the feds. NVDY will start crapping out in about 18 months in the "things go wrong" scenario, which I think is most likely. And there will be another juicy new ETF to replace it.