Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each film's pros and cons.

Captain America: Brave New World

The film is directed by Julius Onah (The Girl is in the Trouble, The Cloverfield Paradox and Luce), from a screenplay by Rob Edwards and the writing teams of Malcolm Spellman & Dalan Musson and Onah & Peter Glanz. It is the 35th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and the fourth installment in the Captain America franchise. It stars Anthony Mackie, Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, Liv Tyler, and Harrison Ford. In the film, following the election of Thaddeus Ross as the president of the United States, Sam Wilson finds himself at the center of an international incident and must work to stop the true masterminds behind it.

PROS

• The MCU is coming off the massive success of Deadpool & Wolverine, which made $1.3 billion worldwide. While these two films aren't continuations, it's a sign that the interest in the MCU is still going strong.

• The Captain America franchise has been incredibly profitable, with each film increasing from the previous one. Even if it's not Steve Rogers as the main lead, it still carries the brand name.

• The addition of Harrison Ford as Thaddeus Ross (replacing the late William Hurt) sounds intriguing. Even at his age, Ford is one of the most iconic actors of all time.

• The film's marketing emphasizes the same old action Marvel fans love. The film is also using political thriller vibes, mirroring The Winter Soldier. Not to mention that on top of getting Ford as Ross, they will also introduce him as Red Hulk, depicting his conflict with Sam Wilson.

• As the first blockbuster of the year, the film will have an advantage over the rest of the month's line-up. And competition over the next few weeks isn't really bad, so this could have some legs.

CONS

• The MCU's brand isn't infallible, much less in the past few years. Once a universe with guaranteed hits, the brand has taken a dive in the past few years. In 2022, its three films were box office success, but two of them (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder) received a very lukewarm response and fell off quickly. In 2023, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was their only success, while the other two titles massively missed the mark; Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania failed to break even and was the worst received MCU film, while The Marvels also received a lukewarm response and became one of the biggest bombs in history. That doesn't mean that the film will flop, but it means that following up Deadpool & Wolverine cannot guarantee success.

• So this is a Captain America film, except for one thing. The character has been associated with Steve Rogers since audiences watched The First Avenger back in 2011, all the way till his character's fate in Endgame in 2019. There's still the question mark over whether the audience will truly accept Sam Wilson as Captain America, even if he got the shield back in Endgame.

• The film is a continuation of the Falcon and Winter Soldier miniseries, which aired back in 2021 on Disney+ (series creator Malcolm Spellman returned to co-write the film). Not only are the events addressed, but the characters of Joaquin Torres and Isaiah Bradley are back in big roles for the film. The audience could feel lost or confused when the film talks about storylines and characters they haven't met if they didn't watch the series.

• Harrison Ford is well known, yes. But his presence cannot guarantee success; just look at Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. There's also still questions over if Red Hulk's introduction will spark enough interest in the film.

• Reviews are very important here. Every time an MCU film had less than ideal reviews, it has matched with the audience's word of mouth (Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, Quantumania and The Marvels).

Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy

The film is directed by Michael Morris (To Leslie) from a screenplay by Helen Fielding, Dan Mazer and Abi Morgan. It is the fourth installment in the Bridget Jones film series, and is based on the 2013 novel by Fielding. The film stars Renée Zellweger, Hugh Grant, Colin Firth, Emma Thompson, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leo Woodall, Isla Fisher, Josette Simon, Nico Parker and Leila Farzad. In the film, Bridget Jones navigates life as a widow and single mom with the help of her family, friends, and former lover, Daniel. Back to work and on the apps, she's pursued by a younger man and maybe - just maybe - her son's science teacher.

PROS

• The Bridget Jones franchise is the most popular rom-com franchise ever. Across all three films, they have earned $756 million worldwide. Needless to say, they're so beloved by audiences.

• This is Renée Zellweger's first film in six years, after Judy (for which she won her second Oscar). The audience should be delighted in finally seeing her on the big screen after so many years, especially playing her most iconic role.

• The return of Hugh Grant could spark interest among fans, after his character's absence in Bridget Jones's Baby.

• The film's Valentine Day release is a perfect date for couples across the world, if they're not interested in watching Harrison Ford turn red.

CONS

• This film is for overseas audiences, and for overseas audiences only. In North America, the film will be released on Peacock, which means it won't make a dime there. Now, this is just a half-con; with each passing film, America has been less and less involved in the film's worldwide box office. For example, Bridget Jones's Baby made $211 million worldwide, and North America made just $24 million (11.4% of its gross). So this is solely for the rest of the world.

• The film brings back Hugh Grant, but if you've seen the trailers and read the synopsis, you already know the fate of Colin Firth's character. Who knows how that could impact the film.

• It's been 9 years since Bridget Jones's Baby, which is quite long to release a sequel. Of course, that film was released 12 years after The Edge of Reason, so perhaps the audience doesn't mind waiting.

And here's the past results.

Next week, we'll predict The Monkey and The Unbreakable Boy.

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

So what are your predictions for these films?