Week 3 Vegas Projections

https://vegasranks.pythonanywhere.com/ranks

These sheets are based on 4pt QB_TD and Half PPR settings, the website has data for every format. Basically what I did is scraped lines from FD, DK, MGM, CZ, PN, Kambi, ESPN, Bet365 and averaged each line given. Then using similar logic to CrazyNinjaOdd's Combo Breaker, we found probabilities for each exact line and calculated how many fantasy points vegas was projecting this week for each player. This is a much better approximation than using single lines at near 50% odds or using only 1 sportsbook

Example

Breece Hall this week between all sportsbooks was projected 1+ touchdown at -169/112

Devigging this line the fair value implies a 58% hit rate

2+ TDs = +320 (19%), 3+ TDs = +750 (6%)

Then we can find the odds of exactly 3 touchdowns at 6%, exactly 2 at 13%, exactly 1 at 39%, and 0 at 42% and find projected vegas points from touchdowns for him at 5 pts this week

Sheets:

ALL // QB // RB // WR // TE

Notable Vegas differences to ECR

  • Charbonnet +5 ranks vs ECR at RB7

  • James Cook -6 at RB15

  • Cam Akers +16 vs ECR at RB22

  • Aiyuk +5 at WR6, Jennings +14 WR34

  • Mike Evans +4 WR9

  • Thielen +14 WR39

  • Worthy -11 WR38

  • Higgins +12 WR29