Defensive Maneuvers -- 2024 Week 12 -- Subvertadown Early D/ST Picks
Let's continue the debate and deliberations of our D/ST options!
For another perspective-- which this year is using my DST ordering as one of the inputs-- you can check out u/keithyp24 's Reddit posts and webpage. Accuracy has been fairly high so far, this year. His post today: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1guzfnc/week_12_defense_streamomatic/
I see increasing talk about playoffs D/STs. While future week forecasts are locked content, on the website, next week we do plan to run our "charity for playoffs view" campaign-- like we've done the previous years. For the time being, don't sweat it-- It's still a bit early to commit your bench spaces to D/ST stashing. Even if it's fun to talk about. Hold tight!
Last week
It was an above-average week for D/ST predictability, compared to the usual level of randomness in fantasy. Among top options in week 11, some were great (Vikings, Lions, and Texans), some were average (49ers and Rams), some were mild letdowns (Packers, Dolphins), and a couple were busts (Jets and Browns). All ranking sources had very similar accuracy. If you happened to choose poorly, it helps to keep in mind that this is a completely typical week--or better-- and it's never in your control!
Pick6x6
We had 52 votes last week. Don't forget to cast your week 12 picks here
The highest score was an 8 last week
Defensive Maneuvers -- Week 12 Tiers
Here are the current D/ST tiers, as seen from Tuesday morning.
| Tier | Why so high? | Why so low? |
|---|---|---|
| 1 - Steelers @ Browns | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: Yards allowed |
| 1 - Texans vs. Titans | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: Opposing QB, Opposing offense change |
| 1 - Chiefs @ Panthers | Pros: Vegas implied score, Yards allowed | Cons: Def. Interceptions |
| 2 - Vikings @ Bears | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: (No single standout reason) |
| 2 - Commanders vs. Cowboys | Pros: Vegas implied score, Opposing QB | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Broncos @ Raiders | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: Yards allowed |
| 3 - Buccaneers @ Giants - Higher in ESPN | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Dolphins vs. Patriots | Pros: Vegas implied score, Yards allowed | Cons: Opposing QB rushing, Def. Interceptions |
| 4 - Lions @ Colts | Pros: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed | Cons: Opposing QB rushing |
| 4 - Browns vs. Steelers | Pros: Vegas implied score, Weather | Cons: QB Interceptions, Def. Interceptions |
As before, D/STs are in tiers, as sorted by an algorithm-- to provide early-Tuesday rankings. The rankings are for Yahoo scoring, and any significant deviations for ESPN scoring are indicated. The "pros/cons" categories are just quick and dirty simplifications of the website tool.
Remember this is just a Tuesday preview, serving to help discussion and thoughts for waivers tonight. Always expect the D/ST rankings to shift during week, as injury news and weather and Vegas lines change.
I note that other sources are higher on Broncos and lower on Commanders.
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Good luck!
/Subvertadown