"Defensive Maneuvers" -- Drive for Charity 2024 -- access playoffs view, $5 charitable donations
Week 13 D/ST rankings below. But first....
Annual Thanksgiving Charity Drive -- Concussion Legacy Foundation
We had 150 participants last year (up from impressive 100 the year before). Now a tradition, we're running it again. The idea is, you can access my forecasted fantasy projections, to help your playoffs planning . And meanwhile, we give $5 of proceeds per person to the Concussion Legacy Foundation, "In Honor of Reddit R/ Fantasyfootball."
Why care about the playoffs view? As I state in each accuracy report: My key goal with D/ST predictions has been to trust the models enough that it makes sense to simulate future weeks. Normally, this "look-ahead" is useful for planning your weekly waivers. But, right around Week 13, there can be an extra benefit: pairing D/STs, or strategic stashing of the right D/STs before playoffs. Is this stashing is useful? It really depends on multiple factors-- such as your league size, bench space, and how competitive your leaguemates are for defenses. If you're in playoff contention, and if you're confident in your core roster, then you might benefit from rostering an extra D/ST-- or blocking your opponent from it! (And by the way, you can consider kicker holds and QB streaming, too. It's not just D/ST.)
This time, we're making it work by giving all subscribers (new and current), full access to the website-- including the forecasted fantasy point "17-week" charts. The access will last until December 4th.
How to Donate? There are 3 options this year.
- Let's not forget: you can directly donate to the Concussion Legacy Foundation, yourselves! You don't need me, of course, so please consider doing that (at the link above).
- Anyone-- even existing subscribers-- has an option to donate a one-time $5, for nothing in return. Here is the link to that option. This is a way to encourage more contributions to the cause-- without the need to subscribe-- as part of one aggregated donation from this subreddit.
- Playoffs View for Charity. As in years past, for each new website subscription (over the next 7 days), we will give $5 of your subscription amount straight to the charity. That applies even to this year's new $7.50 tier. (It's because of this cheaper tier that it no longer makes sense to offer a 1-week pass for $5.)
Thanks for giving. Thanks for considering to give to this important cause! We all participate in gambling around this sport, a game that can at times be quite dangerous. We're all aware when concussion protocols affect our lineups. Let's remember that it's critically important: Brain trauma affects the human player more than our imaginary lineups. This is about supporting our beloved players, so they can address their injuries the right way, and eventually continue playing safely-- which is of course to everyone's benefit.
Last week
For all D/ST rankers, accuracy was back to a normal level-- down from a week 11 high predictability. The Subvertadown models held up well compared to the rest! But nobody was immune from the busts of Chiefs and Commanders. Texans were the best call that probably won it for you, and apparently more expert rankers should have been higher on Packers and Dolphins. At Subvertadown.com, the Pick6x6 Crowd-sourced rankings didn't significantly impact accuracy last week: Voters were rightly higher on Broncos... however surprisingly lower on both Vikings and Buccaneers.
Pick6x6
We had 52 votes last week. Don't forget to cast your week 13 picks here
Defensive Maneuvers -- Week 13 Tiers
Here are the current D/ST tiers, as seen from Tuesday morning.
| Tier | Why so high? | Why so low? |
|---|---|---|
| 1 - Cowboys vs. Giants | Pros: Vegas implied score, Opposing QB | Cons: Opposing QB uncertainty, Own QB change |
| 1 - Chiefs vs. Raiders | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: Def. Interceptions |
| 2 - Broncos vs. Browns | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: Yards allowed, Def. Interceptions |
| 2 - Lions vs. Bears | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: (No single standout reason) |
| 3 - Texans @ Jaguars | Pros: Vegas implied score, Yards allowed | Cons: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Bills vs. 49ers - Lower in ESPN | Pros: Vegas implied score, Opposing QB | Cons: Yards allowed, Opposing QB change |
| 3 - Commanders vs. Titans | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: Def. Interceptions |
| 3 - Seahawks @ Jets | Pros: Vegas implied score | Cons: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Colts @ Patriots | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: Yards allowed |
| 4 - Buccaneers @ Panthers | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 4 - Patriots vs. Colts - Lower in ESPN | Pros: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Vegas implied score |
As before, D/STs are in tiers, as sorted by an algorithm-- to provide early-Tuesday rankings. The rankings are for Yahoo scoring, and any significant deviations for ESPN scoring are indicated. The "pros/cons" categories are just quick and dirty simplifications of the website tool.
Remember this is just a Tuesday preview, serving to help discussion and thoughts for waivers tonight. Always expect the D/ST rankings to shift during week, as injury news and weather and Vegas lines change.
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Good luck! And have a Happy Thanksgiving.
/Subvertadown