Defensive Maneuvers -- 2024 Week 15 -- Subvertadown Early D/ST Picks
Last week
According to the numbers, week 14 wasn't quite as predictable as weeks 8 and 11, for D/ST. But we shouldn't overlook that week 14 was actually generous for D/ST streaming. Overall randomness was lower than most other weeks.
It might not have felt like it, because D/ST scores were (on average) the lowest last week, compared to what we've seen all season. The upshot is, you should feel like you did just fine in week 14, if you avoided to go below 5 points. (The average of the D/STs which were ranked in the bottom half was 1.2 fantasy points. Those in the top half averaged 7 points.)
The biggest bust was Dolphins, and the Eagles also stung compared to the high hopes we had for them. Most rankers did not have the 49ers or Buccs high enough. But aside from these exceptions, it was a good week for improving your odds with D/ST streaming.
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Pick6x6
We had 47 votes last week. Don't forget to cast your week 15 picks here!
It is a very tight race at the top, among the top 3. Skobae barely overtook HiggsBoson for the #1 spot, and Fuzzy is close behind.
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Defensive Maneuvers -- Week 15 Tiers
As before, D/STs are in tiers, as sorted by an algorithm-- to provide early-Tuesday rankings. The rankings are for Yahoo scoring, and any significant deviations for ESPN scoring are indicated. The "pros/cons" categories are just quick and dirty simplifications of the website tool.
Remember this is just a Tuesday preview, serving to help discussion and thoughts for waivers tonight. Always expect the D/ST rankings to shift during week, as injury news and weather and Vegas lines change.
| Tier | Why so high? | Why so low? |
|---|---|---|
| 1 - Ravens @ Giants | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: QB Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 2 - Commanders @ Saints | Pros: Vegas implied score, Opposing QB | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Own RB change |
| 2 - Vikings vs. Bears | Pros: Vegas implied score, Sacks | Cons: QB Interceptions |
| 2 - Jets @ Jaguars | Pros: Vegas implied score, Opposing QB | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Falcons @ Raiders - Lower in ESPN | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Yards allowed |
| 3 - Broncos vs. Colts | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: (no standout reason, combination of smaller reasons) |
| 3 - Cardinals vs. Patriots | Pros: Vegas implied score, Yards allowed | Cons: Def. Interceptions, QB Interceptions |
| 3 - Bengals @ Titans | Pros: QB Interceptions, Vegas implied score | Cons: Yards allowed, Def. Interceptions |
| 3 - Chiefs @ Browns | Pros: Vegas implied score, QB Interceptions | Cons: Def. Interceptions, Opposing QB risk |
The Ravens rank in the bottom third, for the season, which feels risky when listing them at the top. But just like many options this week, the odds are largely based on the opposing offense having 2nd or 3rd string QBs (Giants, Saints, Jaguars, Raiders, etc). I imagine the Commanders and Falcons will be increasingly attractive streaming options, and I imagine people will feel spooked by the Cardinals, Bengals, and Chiefs options.
Good luck!
/Subvertadown