Weighted Opportunity - Wide Receivers - 2024 Season
I am slightly disappointed with the results here, and plan to fine tune the model a little. The opportunity score was only .80 correlated with Fantasy Points. This year was abnormally low in terms of target correlation. Examining Targets lone (no Red Zone data which is what we use to enhance our numbers) you see:
- 2021: .846 Correlation
- 2022: .883 Correlation
- 2023: .814 Correlation
- 2024: .784 Correlation
So in general a large dip this year that I think SHOULD revert back to the mean and give us more explanatory power next year. I am going to fine tune the data for 2025 and see if we can improve this more. Our Opportunity Score does improve off this by a small margin, but I had expected more based on previous years.
Noteworthy:
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), Justin Jefferson (MIN), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) all exceeded their Opportunity Score likely due to Touchdown %. Terry McLaurin (WAS) is also on this list.
- Top "Tier" of Opportunity was clearly: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), Malik Nabers (NYG), CeeDee Lamb (DAL) season long.
- Top "Tier" would also include Puka Nacua (LAR), Tee Higgins (CIN), Davante Adams (NYJ) if you adjust for missed games (looking at average/week). Tee Higgins is very interesting here.
- Biggest "flops" compared to Opportunity Score: Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG), Elijah Moore (CLE), Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF), Rome Odunze (CHI), Adonai Mitchell (IND), DJ Moore (CHI), Malik Nabers (NYG), Garrett Wilson (NYJ).
- No big surprise NYG WRs on here given the QB play. If they can sort that out, its something to watch.
- No huge surprise two CHI WRs here either. Same story.
Cheers!