Does the US Benefit from Myanmar's Civil War by Disrupting China's Belt and Road Goals? - The Malacca Dilemma

China has been heavily investing in Myanmar, specifically through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) aimed at providing a direct route to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu port. This would theoretically allow China to bypass the narrow Malacca Straits, a critical choke point that the U.S. Navy could easily block in the event of a conflict. Such a blockade would severely disrupt China’s energy imports and trade, which heavily depend on shipping through the Malacca Straits.

With the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, since 2021 the instability has posed significant hurdles for China. Various ethnic armed groups (EAOs) and political unrest have delayed or complicated BRI projects. China has recently adjusted its stance and now seems more openly supportive of the Myanmar military junta, despite its history of supplying both sides in the conflict. This shift could be a strategic move to stabilize areas crucial to its BRI ambitions, especially since the junta controls the central government and can potentially provide a more predictable pathway for Chinese investments.

The presence of anti-China sentiments in Myanma is higher than ever after the 1027 Operation in 2023 launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA) to eliminate the Chinese Scam Centers in Northern Shan State and to stop the India's Kaladan Route Project in Rakhine State, with the blessing of China. While the U.S. might not be directly intervening in Myanmar with lowkey support on Chrsitian ethnic armed groups, it arguably benefits from this turmoil, as the unrest continues, slowing down China’s ability to secure a reliable overland trade route.

With the Myanmar conflict, the U.S. alliances around the Malacca Straits, and increasing support for Taiwan, the U.S. is effectively benefiting from a multi-layered containment around China. If Myanmar were stable, China would have a much more robust alternative to the Malacca Straits. But with ongoing instability and the delicate balancing act China is playing with both the junta and ethnic armed groups, the "Malacca Dilemma" remains unsolved.

Could this be a deliberate U.S. strategy, or just an opportunistic advantage?