Sam Darnold and the Middle-Class Quarterback (OC)

Adam Schefter reported on March 3rd that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will not be franchise tagged, paving the way for him to enter free agency. The Vikings had to make a tough choice, tag or sign Darnold to a heightened contract after a career year where he led the team to an impressive 14-3 season, or let him walk after a brutal finish to the season and take a chance on the young JJ McCarthy, who the team drafted in the first round last year but missed the entire season with a knee injury.

It appears that choice has been made and Darnold is going to hit the open market. Where he’ll land and what contract he’ll receive will be seen in time, but for now we can try to analyze the situation. Let’s start by defining what a middle class quarterback is in relation to their contract.

Due to the hard salary cap, the continuously rising cap ceiling, and the importance of the position, quarterbacks are among the few players with the leverage to make nearly any monetary demand. As a result, players like Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence have set new benchmarks near the top of all contracts with their latest deals.

This cycle continues because new contracts inevitably surpass the old ones, just as we’ve seen with the elite-tier quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.

That has essentially killed “middle class contracts” at the position. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford sit at 14th and 15th respectively in annual value. Once you get to the 22nd ranked contract it’s the likes of Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels on their rookie deals.

Gardner Minshew and Sam Darnold were previously 20th and 21st on that list on cheap and short deals as they acted as stopgaps and fill-ins. Darnold, however, played himself into a much bigger deal.

That gives us contracts ranked 16th-19th to give us an idea of what the middle class looks like, those deals belonging to (in order): Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. However, these contracts all have specific situations to them as well.

Aaron Rodgers restructured his deal when he was traded to the New York Jets, signing for $112.5m over three years with $75m fully guaranteed. This deal had way too much to take into consideration, like that Rodgers would be 40-years-old during his first season, but also that he had just won two MVPs in the previous three seasons. The Jets clearly were desperate to make a splash after striking out on their previously highly drafted quarterbacks, one of which was Sam Darnold. It’s hard to make any comparison between Rodgers and Darnold.

Next is Derek Carr, which again came from a wild set of circumstances. Of the middle class guys, Carr is the only one to hit true free agency as a sought after commodity. Furthermore, the New Orleans Saints have a notably insane cap strategy which they delved deeper into once they made this deal. He signed for $150m over four years with a ton of future restructures built in that would essentially continue to guarantee money while opening up cap space for the Saints. This may be a comparable deal with a less cap rich deal willing to commit to Darnold for multiple years, but that seems unlikely.

We’re going to skip to Geno Smith next, whose deal is only for $25m a year but is in the final season of his contract and is actively seeking an extension. His deal is by far the lowest in guaranteed and annual money because it was signed three years ago and because he was an older breakout player when he signed the extension. What his next deal will be will be much more telling of this market, but for now there’s nothing to take away from it.

That leaves us with Baker Mayfield, who is very comparable. Both were high draft picks in the 2018 draft, both have been discarded by their original team and bounced around the league, and then both put together strong performances in a contract year to earn a solid deal. The only difference is that Mayfield played that out with the Buccaneers who then re-signed him, whereas Darnold will be looking for a new team

Baker signed for $100m over three years with half guaranteed. He probably could have made closer to $40m a year on the open market but showed loyalty to Tampa Bay who took a chance on him and put him in a place to succeed.

Darnold is likely to land a deal similar to Mayfield’s but boosted by the salary cap jump and his free agent status.** I’d expect 3 years, $115m, $55m in guarantees.**

Teams to Watch

Honorable Mentions: Both New York Teams.

Technically, it’s new leadership with the Jets and they need a stopgap quarterback. So there isn’t a 0% chance of a reunion between them and Darnold. However, I can’t imagine ownership wants to be seen as crawling back to him, nor would I expect Darnold to want to play for that ownership again.

The Giants haven’t been linked to Darnold as they’re more likely to land one of the few quarterback prospects through the draft. Should they manage, a lesser commitment and older veteran like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson makes more sense.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns can offer something few other interested teams can: time.

If they commit to Darnold with a three or four year deal, that should be at least two years that Darnold is the firm starter. What helps ensure this is the cap situation, where the Browns are notably poor, 31st this year and 32nd next year.

However, this situation becomes more manageable if/when DeShaun Watson is a post 6/1 trade or cut next off-season. Fitting Darnold under the cap this year would require them to push money out into years two and three, giving him some long-term commitment. Of course, the Browns can draft a quarterback at any time and move on, but it’s a hedged bet either way.

For Darnold, staying connected to an offensive minded head coach would be an ideal way to keep some continuity after bouncing around the league for so long. Cleveland should be aggressive in upgrading the offense around him for a future quarterback anyway.

Tennessee Titans

If the rumors are true and the Titans plan to trade out of the first-overall pick, then they need to find someone who can fill the quarterback spot. I think they’ll look into Kirk Cousins and maybe Russell Wilson as well, but Darnold would give them a bit more flexibility to build over a couple years without needing to force a young quarterback.

Darnold gives off just a bit too much Will Levis vibes to make this a clean fit, but at this point Darnold has shown far more competency than Levis has. However, unless the Titans offer the most money, this doesn’t seem like the safest spot for Sam who has played in plenty of bad offenses. The offensive line may be coming together slowly but the lack of weapons that he can lean on should give him pause. Maybe a Travis Hunter Jr., would solve that, maybe not.

Las Vegas Raiders

The tea leaves sure seem to think Shedeur Sanders will be a Raider, which would leave little space for Darnold to operate. It’ll take a little luck for Sanders to drop to the 6th pick where the Raiders draft, but it’s always possible they make the aggressive trade up for him.

In the case that they can’t land a young quarterback, Darnold would slide right in as a competitive stopgap. The last regime tried that with Gardner Minshew, but Darnold showed a lot more promise than Minshew had, and he’ll be going to a more adept coaching staff. Not only does Pete Carroll give the team as a whole a higher ceiling, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly may be an ideal fit coming from Ohio State. Darnold thrived at USC in a more spread out offensive attack, something Kelly can replicate while combining more NFL concepts that helped Darnold find success last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers

It was surprising that the Steelers weren’t mentioned at all in the Matthew Stafford sweepstakes. What we did hear from the combine was that they’re uninterested in this year's crop of prospects and will be entertaining the veteran market for a quarterback.

The Steelers are far more reserved than most teams, so it isn’t surprising that they didn’t immediately offer Stafford a hefty deal like the Giants and Raiders did. However, that leaves me wondering if they aren’t interested in a quick rental at all. Maybe it was the trade assets it would cost, so Aaron Rodgers may still be in play, especially if he can bring Davante Adams with him.

Otherwise, this is not a team that wants to tank and almost seems incapable of doing so. They aren’t going to be drafting high any time soon, so they could be looking for a Russell Wilson/Justin Fields type that they can rely on for multiple years and grow into their system.

Sam Darnold would fit that mold. It’s a bold move, but ownership gives Mike Tomlin more leeway than most other coaches get, so a longer term bet like this may make sense.