Rachel Vs Genevive jury vote. Who wins?

I've seen some discourse regarding how the jury vote goes against Rachel and Genevive with the presumption that Sue is the other finalist. In this scenario Sam goes out at 5 and Teeny in fire. This is how I see a jury vote of Rachel V Genevive V Sam going

Rachel in my opinion has the locked votes of Teeny, Sierra, Caroline, and Andy

Genevive has the locked vote of Sam

Sol voted for Rachel in real life and we saw them have a great relationship. Genevive and Sol are both from Lavo but we're never on the same page and Genevive blindsided him arguably to her detriment since she lacked agency after the Sol vote for sometime

Kyle is up for grabs but he didn't vote for Rachel in real life so he is pliable to voting for Genevive especially with Sam campaigning for her to him.

Gabe is truly up in the air in real life he voted Rachel however would he potentially lean Genevive

Sue would always break the tie in Rachels favour

Overall I think a Rachel V Genevive vote would be 5 - 2 with Rachel winning, and if I'm being super generous to Genevive and all the votes that are a toss up go her way its 4-4 with Sue breaking the tie in Rachel's favour

Do yall agree with my opinion on how the jury vote between Genevive and Rachel would go and why?