Did the National weather service miss the forecast for Lake effect snows?

Starting with December 30th, the National weather service has been telling us we're going to get between 1 and 1/2 to 2 ft of snow starting New Year's Eve through this coming Sunday.

We usually get walloped by lake effect coming off of Lake Erie, but we've had maybe an inch, total. And I'm looking at the radar - and I don't see anything coming towards us.

I think the area north of Syracuse got some Lake effect off Lake Ontario, but their forecasts come out of Binghamton, not Buffalo. The Buffalo office is still saying we're in a warning for an additional 15 in.

Is anyone else completely confused by the forecast and warning?