Iovance Biotheraputics YOLO
This is my largest position currently.
Why IOVA?
1) IOVA received accelerated approval for their second line immunotherapy for metastatic melanoma on February 16th of this year.
2) The rollout in Q1 has been nothing short of impressive for an expensive second line therapy. Over 100 patients in the pipeline, and over 40 ATCs.
3) They are pulling out all of the stops for ASCO this year. Multiple presentations/events/lectures/etc. The advance data they have provided to ASCO is also looking very promising.
- A recent data cut included 23 patients with a median follow up of 21.7 months.2
- Confirmed ORR was 65.2%, including 7 (30.4%) complete responses and 8 (34.8%) partial responses by RECIST v1.1.
- All evaluable patients demonstrated regression of their target lesions.
- Nearly all responses remained ongoing. The duration of response was 12+ months for 8 responders (53.3%) and 6+ months for 11 responders (73.3%).
Considering this is for one of the deadliest cancers in the world, this is extraordinarily positive.
4) Wayne Rothbaum is the largest shareholder. (10%)
5) They appear to be a great target for acquisition. This is being closely watched by Goldman, which an analyst points out a few large players with ~15B to spend on an acquisition this year. Interestingly enough, Merck announced they are stopping their late stage research on a combination therapy for late stage melanoma. They are also reportedly looking for an acquisition this year with 15B to spend.
The biggest risk, and why IDGAF:
They do not have enough cash on hand to make it through the next twelve months. Either they get acquired or they dilute. Dilution could come very soon. I am playing this long, and will not be selling anytime soon. Given the data, the people backing this, the benefits to those who need treatment, and the implications of what this therapy can extend to, I will be on this train awhile. Who knows. This stock should be $18 a share soon IMHO. On acquisition, easily above $20. If I hang on through dilution if they want to see this through alone, who knows what this could be worth in 5-10 years. Maybe nothing. Maybe 5x. I am locked in.